德意志銀行午宴暨座談會分享 (續)

老闆王文彥先生早前獲德意志銀行邀請為一個午宴暨座談會擔任主講嘉賓，談談對近期樓市轉淡、市場轉勢在即的各種看法及對來年後市的預測。下文為德意志銀行為座談會所撰寫的總結文章節錄之(四)：

Key takeaways from luncheon with Mr. Denny Wong

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Tony Tsang (Research Analyst)  Jason Ching, CFA (Research Analyst)

A rising number of negative factors affecting the HK property market (Continued):

12) Starting Sep 2015, Mr. Wong has seen a turning point in the HK residential market. In the secondary market, there have been sharp declines in transaction volumes. At the same time, more owners in the secondary market have started to lower both asking prices and/or asking rents, and more sales and rental transactions are being undertaken at 3-11% discounts to prevailing market prices and rents. In addition, in the primary market, since Sep 2015, there have been about 30 cases in which the buyer has let go of their deposit and walked away from their purchase. These are all signs of a weaker residential market.

13) In Sep 2015, there were 2,467 transactions in the secondary market, the lowest in 2015. In addition, it was only 25.5% of the secondary transaction volume of 7,157 in Jun 2010 (before the HK government started to introduce tightening measures) and only 15.1% of the secondary transaction volume of 12,115 in Aug 2010 (shortly after the HK government introduced the tightening measures). In Oct MTD (up to Oct 13, 2015), there were only 766 transactions in the secondary market. Pro-rata, transaction volume would likely be only 1,827 for Oct 2015, which would be a new low since Jan 2010, and very low vs. the level in 1997 and 2010.

14) Mr. Wong believes that those who want to buy property now should be prepared to see at least a 30% loss in the future.

15) Mr. Wong believes that now is still a good time to sell property because there is still liquidity in the market.

16) According to Mr. Wong, now, only properties with a lump sum of at least HK$20mn can be considered luxury property. For this segment, prices have not risen as much in the past two years as they have for small-medium-sized apartments. In the past two years, the price increases have mainly been in small-medium-sized apartments, which entail higher risks, because the financial positions of buyers in this segment are normally not as strong.

17) For the super-luxury segment, if the owners need to sell their holdings now, prices would also fall sharply due to the low gross rental yields of super-luxury apartments and the low liquidity in the segment because of super-high lump sums.

18) Theoretically, Mr. Wong believes that a 50% fall in residential prices from the current level is reasonable, but there are other technical factors (like QE in China, Japan and Europe) that could affect the magnitude of the final property price declines. That said, Mr. Wong believes that when the downturn is established, a decline for at least 40% could be expected.

The end