死亡一吻(?)

陳美美

財資服務經理

2010年7月20日

Dear readers, bear with me of writing in English for this article, for I have just reset my computer due to some technical issues, and have not yet installed my Chinese typing software. Besides, it has been a while I am not able to find time to write here, and this will continue for 2 years because I will start a 2-year course very soon.

As mentioned in my previous article dated 2 June, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced the prohibition of naked short selling on 20 May that means today is its lift. Let’s see if anything will happen afterwards. Since last article, the Hang Seng Index has rebound quite nicely after the dead cross, and has kissed the 250 moving average by end of June. Some people say that it is the famous goodbye kiss. Let’s see how it behaves in the coming few days after the IPO of Agricultural Bank of China and today’s rebound.

To report to you a few facts here, dead cross will take place tomorrow for DJI (Dow Jones Industries), it is already done on 7/15 for S&P, and for quite a while for FTSE. Well, with all these dead cross taking place, it does not necessarily mean that you need to sell all your stocks, because historically different scenarios took place after the dead cross appears. It could be an immediate falling, a rebound with a goodbye kiss, or a very strong and sustainable upward move. So you still have 33% for each scenario to happen (bear in mind that 33% does not represent the statistics of all the scenarios).

Gold is correcting after broken through USD 1260/oz., probably it will go side-way in a wide range for a good while.

On the other hand, I think it is better for me to provide you with a historical asset class return compared with Hong Kong inflation rate, where you will clearly find that both the global equity curve and global bond curve outpace well Hong Kong’s inflation, regardless of the big ups and downs. You will need to figure out what best suits for your investment style and risk profile. Why am I saying this? It is because a lot of people in Hong Kong likes short term speculation (day trade or just hold a stock for a few weeks) and usually neglect the risk they are taking, on the other hand, some others just buy and hold (like HSBC or Cheung Kong) for more than 20-30 years and don’t know too much what to do next. I can’t tell whether one way is better than the other, but investment is something much more sophisticated than both simplified versions. May be you can just get a hint from this chart?

That’s the way it is – 14
irenechanapex@gmail.com

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