Distance, personal hygiene still best practices to prevent virus' spread

Since Jan 23 last year, Hong Kong and its residents have been embroiled in the chaos that is COVID-19. Over the past year, the city has recorded over 10,000 cases and 181 deaths against a backdrop of continued economic decline. And it is sad to say that the battle against our invisible enemy is still far from being over. 

Perhaps coincidental on this gloomy anniversary, the Hong Kong SAR government revised its measures by putting, from time to time as required, areas in the districts of Jordan, Yau Tsim Mong and North Point under a mandatory testing order.

The operations were not without their hiccups, but the temporary lockdown conducted in North Point was perhaps the most successful. Since it was carried out without prior warning, this meant that residents were unable to evade mandatory testing by fleeing their district. 

Enhanced testing was also performed in the districts of Yau Ma Tei and Jordan by way of extending compulsory testing to a core area within these districts. 

It appears that the SAR government has stepped up its efforts and is cracking down on both overseas and local cases by way of compulsory testing, faster contact tracing, and strict quarantine measures.

Perhaps this is a sign of better things to come. Hopefully, the government may expand their district-by-district approach or, better yet, instate universal testing across the city.

Unfortunately, it’s not as rosy a picture around the world.

Over 100 million cases have plagued the world and some two million people have died. The novel coronavirus’ ability to spread so quickly among populations — mainly through droplet transmissions — combined with its long incubation period and low mortality rate means that this virus is reproducing at an alarming rate. 

Most governments around the world have also failed to implement strict and consistent lockdown measures, which has allowed the virus to spread unabated. 

While the Chinese mainland has been hailed for its success in controlling the virus, it’s not as simple as imploring other governments to directly follow China’s approach. And even if it were possible, many nations are far too focused on pushing vaccinations on their citizens and are neglecting to manage populations through use of lockdown measures and the like.

There are also other reasons to consider, such as the wide range of efficacy rates of the available vaccines — which are based solely on trials — and the complex logistics required for storage and transportation. Some countries lack the cold chain infrastructure required for certain vaccines, which presents a whole host of other issues. 

And what about the goal of achieving global herd immunity? If we are to assume that herd immunity can be achieved by vaccinating a minimum of 60 percent of the population, then that would mean inoculating a minimum of 4.68 billion people worldwide.

Vaccinating entire countries — let alone the globe — is no small feat, and it will likely take more than a year for some countries to vaccinate the required minimum of their population. 

Even if we are able to overcome these sizable hurdles, we need to consider those who may be reluctant to receive the vaccine. 

Some surveys conducted in Hong Kong have indicated that only 30 percent of respondents would be willing to receive the vaccine; the highest result of similarly conducted surveys was 60 percent.

We can’t pin all of our hopes on any of these vaccines. We need to continue practicing social distancing and maintaining the high standards of personal hygiene for as long as it is required.

In the meantime, we must also be prepared for the likelihood that this virus will continue to mutate. Sure, we might wish it away — somehow the virus miraculously disappears, but this is more wishful thinking than anything.

In the meantime we have seen more variants cropping up around the world, so it is clear that this virus is now mutating. 

We may have to redraw the battle lines. Unlike other viruses such as Ebola which has a higher mortality rate and was less likely to spread far after killing the host, the COVID-19 virus and its variants are more contagious — including the British variant — and under this scenario the virus could spread exponentially for years to come.

Last year, the World Health Organization forecast that COVID-19 would kill 2 million people globally. But now that we have exceeded that number, we need to batten down the hatches and remain as vigilant as ever. 

This pandemic has already made short work of national infrastructures, healthcare systems, the global economy and national economies, and our mental well-being. And as lockdowns remain in place the world over, these societal structures will continue to feel the strain, as shall we. 

And as for the forecast on the home front, the social and economic situation is not much better than other economies.

Unemployment in Hong Kong has risen to 6.6 percent — the highest rate recorded in 16 years — without any sign of slowing down. The younger parts of the population are particularly feeling the effects of this economic downturn, as 20 percent of those aged 16 to 25 are currently out of work.

Worldwide, many communities are having to combat not just financial stresses, but social instability, higher crime rates and even political instability across the board. If some national governments lose in their next elections in the next few years as a result of the pandemic, I shall not be surprised. I definitely do not wish it on any country and can only implore readers, governments and leaders to prepare for the worst, as the worst is yet to come.

The author is president of Wisdom Hong Kong, a think tank.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily. 

Source: China Daily