After reading this article, you will understand why the United States keeps pressing China.  

 

The future of America can only be worse or worse.

 

 A few days ago, I chatted with an economics professor at Oxford University who has just retired and currently lives in Shanghai. I have to say that the British guys have great ideas and vision in politics. (But I still can’t figure out how the British Empire will play Brexit.  Like this?) No matter how the media promotes, senior intellectuals still have their own unique views on the situation. In chatting with the old professor, I have a clearer perspective on the international situation in China and the United States.

 

 Regarding the trade war, I said that China is actually unwilling to fight, and has not initiated a trade war on its own initiative. Many of the accusations made by the United States are nonsense.  The professor said that he knows, but this is not the essence and point at all. He believes that the trade war is still China’s strategic offensive against the United States. Regardless of whether the trade war is provoked by the United States or not, even if it is, it is better to say that the Chinese are "persecuting."  "The trade war provoked by the Americans has to start with the evolution of the situation from 1998 to 2008 and from 2008 to the present.

 The United States relies on the US dollar, the US military and American values ​​harvest social wealth from the world and attract talents to feed the United States itself and weaken the strength of other countries. Since the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system, a systematic combination of punches and methods has been formed, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union has intensified  This dependence.

 The specific method is this:

 

 The U.S. dollar, which relies on the influence and national strength of the United States, provides liquidity to the world in the form of a trade deficit and allows the U.S. dollar to flow around the world. We can regard these U.S. dollars as fry or lamb.

 Then rely on the US military strength and international influence to artificially create regional conflicts and crises, which can take many forms; political crises, economic crises, interest rate hikes, and even international conflicts so that the asset prices of specific countries fluctuate greatly relative to the US dollar.  The domestic currency has depreciated sharply, thus harvesting the high-quality assets and foreign exchange reserves of other countries at an ultra-low cost. On the one hand, the value-added wealth is filled in the United States. On the other hand, the liquidity of the US dollar is recovered to prepare for the next round of harvesting and release the peace  The specific operations in the recovery of dollar liquidity are raising interest rates and lowering interest rates. The entire process has formed a systematic combination of punches, just like raising a sheep, letting it out for grazing, fattening and slaughtering.

 This method has been effective many times. For this reason, the United States has established its global public key system and promoted globalization to establish a guarantee for the free circulation of US dollars.

 But since 1998, this approach has been greatly challenged. The fundamental reason lies in China. China’s rise is not only as simple as another powerful country that replaced the Soviet Union, but its existence and methods have caused the US-led international order.  huge challenge.  The rise of China is the biggest challenge and hidden danger for the United States since the 21st century. The government has strong control and has many control measures on capital in the financial field. This makes it difficult for the United States to harvest China’s wealth through capital operations alone, and then China’s increasingly powerful comprehensive  National power and a stable social and political environment make it more difficult for the United States to create a political crisis to create China's asset price diving. Even if it does, it is difficult for wealth to flow out of China due to China's control measures.  Since 1998, whether it is to cause internal instability in China by creating international conflicts or to replace a government that allows capital to circulate freely, it has failed, and it has cost the United States a lot of "Cost."  Including money or international influence, it can be said that since the 21st century, China has not been steamed, boiled, or beaten to the United States.

 A copper pea that is not fried.  Apart from directly declaring war, the United States has no means to interrupt China's ascent process!  If this is the case, China cannot be regarded as a major concern for the United States, or in other words, the Soviet Union should be a more serious threat than China.  For the United States, the reason why China is more dangerous than the Soviet Union is that it has adopted a completely different approach from the Soviet Union, but this approach is eroding and corrupting the foundation of the United States.  The rise of China has not only made China itself an unreapable target for the United States, but has also greatly reduced the effectiveness of the United States’ previous harvesting combinations against other countries.

 China first protects itself from being harvested by the United States, and then by holding a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange reserves, when the United States harvests other countries, it "collects a tax" from the United States.

 The specific performance is to use one's own huge foreign exchange reserves to create a "crisis" in the United States, and to purchase assets with the Americans at low prices (including oilfield development rights, bidding for infrastructure construction, or just purchasing some resources, or participating in reconstruction or investment.  ), for the United States, the only dollar returned is not wealth, only inflation rather than actual benefits.

 

 He called this a "parasitic" of China to the United States, but this trend did not make Americans vigilant before 2008, or in other words, did not make Americans so vigilant.  The turning point was in 2008, when the economic crisis damaged the power of the United States. According to the past, the United States needed to find a target to export the crisis and harvest wealth.  There is no doubt that China cannot make the United States what it wants.  The United States has discovered that not only is it impossible for China, it also does not benefit much from other countries.  It turns out that China has been accumulating strength since its reform and opening up. In 2008, the damaged strength of the United States and China's unstoppable strength accumulation reached a subtle tipping point.

 

 He said: I don't know what you Chinese think, but after 2008, China's state-owned enterprises and infrastructure construction suddenly increased by one level in terms of influence and level.  China suddenly began to pay attention to promoting the internationalization of the renminbi and its output capacity, and a few years later, it even launched the One Belt One Road initiative.  Since 2008, the United States has discovered a fact that the use of previous harvesting methods is not only a question of whether there are benefits, but a question of whether it can be paid back!  The reason is that in the past, after thinking that manufacturing prices fluctuated, it was possible to purchase high-quality assets at a low price in U.S. dollars and recover liquidity. Although some of them were intercepted by China, most of the income was still American, but after 2008, most of the income was actually  It was collected by China because of the large number of currency swap agreements and the One Belt One Road project since 2008, and many international financing channels opened by China (led by China). Taking Africa as an example, China has changed the direct use of U.S. dollars to acquire resources or assets.  It is proposed to some third world countries that industrial products and infrastructure are converted into U.S. dollars, and the counterparty can convert their own high-quality assets into U.S. dollars to conclude transactions.  The two parties only claimed to have used US dollars, but in reality, "one cent" did not flow!  As a result, after various regional conflicts and crises were created in the United States, first in Europe, China also intervened in this way. As a result, the United States not only had its benefits withheld, but may even have no benefits.

 

 For example, in Iraq, China bids on infrastructure and products, and Iraq uses options on infrastructure gains or options on other assets to secure transactions.  This is only the flow of materials, and the United States cannot reap any income in US dollars.  And China also has its own funding channels (Asian Investment Bank/Kunlun Bank, etc.). The Americans finally discovered that in the past, Chinese people just used a straw to take a sip. It used to be ninety-one or four-six, but now it’s three-seven. China  Seven, the United States, three, and sometimes Americans even lose money. This is challenging the foundation of the United States.  Since the disintegration of Breton, in order to harvest more, the United States has almost changed its national form and political concepts, and built its own global system. The disintegration of the Soviet Union has also exacerbated this trend. Everything is for better capital circulation and convenience for the United States.  Reaping benefits, including de-industrialization and making the financial industry highly prosperous.  America changed for globalization,

 The concept of the United States has also changed for globalization. The United States today is no longer the United States of America in 1939!  In order to build and maintain this global system, the United States has paid a huge cost and has to maintain an extremely high military expenditure and a huge trade deficit. As long as it can continue to harvest, then the U.S. trade deficit and high military expenditure are worth it.  Both can get great returns.

 But now, the United States has paid the cost and consumed the influence, but can't get the corresponding benefits. You pay for the money, you do the evil, and the peaches are picked by others.

 In order to suppress Russia and continue to depress international oil prices, the United States raised international oil prices in the Middle East in the early years, allowing U.S. oil companies to make more money, and the technology research and development of oil extraction rose to a higher level.  Development has become an oil-producing country.  In other words, the United States is no longer able to reap high profits in petrodollars by creating regional tensions, and raising oil prices will only fatten Russia, and even Latin American countries such as Venezuela will get out of control.  .  As for the acquisition of high-quality assets at low prices?  Take Iran as an example. Can the United States defeat Iran?  But if you want to support a pro-American regime in Iran, such as supporting the Sunni government, then the United States must have a large amount of blood transfusion, otherwise, look at the Taliban as an example.  If the new government does not have continuous blood transfusions from the United States, there is no doubt that the regime will remain unstable. However, if it continues to export, one Afghanistan plus Iraq will almost suck up the prosperous United States. As far as the current federal government is concerned, a place as big as Iran must maintain one  The pro-U.S. regime is nothing but talk.

 Let’s not talk about whether there are so-called “quality assets” in a country destroyed by war. Even if there are, the new government will auction high-quality assets for post-war reconstruction, and then auction high-quality assets for what?  Or is it to raise funds for post-war reconstruction, then China can directly bid for infrastructure construction, and the new government uses asset options as mortgages. What will happen to the Americans at that time?  Railroads, electricity, communication networks, and highways. The United States, which has de-industrialized in order to harvest the world, can no longer compete with China in these infrastructure fields. Even if cutting-edge technology still has advantages, the federal government, which lacks markets and funds, has already  There is no ability to reverse the trend!

 

 It is an obvious fact that the federal government has no money. For a major country, it is difficult to turn back. If the way of survival or social system can be easily changed, then the Soviet Union does not need to disintegrate. This is why the United States must proceed.  , Directly, powerfully and substantively began to hit China.  As long as China lives in this way, the global system of the United States may be at risk of disintegration. The fiscal revenue of the federal government is already in jeopardy, but the expenditures that have to be spent are rising every year, plus the annual creation of the United States.  How much wealth has gone into private pockets and how much has gone into the federal government’s treasury is a question mark. The previous incremental period does not matter, but from 2008 to the present, the United States has entered a period of consumption of stocks. In the past, various societies  Problems will become increasingly prominent.

 

 If the United States abandons its global system and returns to Monroe doctrine, it is also a way, but professors are pessimistic about it. The great changes in the state system and society and concepts will be the best hotbed for chaos and civil war. If the great powers turn so easily, the Soviet Union  No need to subjugate the country!  Therefore, he felt that the trade war was essentially China's strategic offensive against the United States. Whether it was provoked by the United States or not, it was actually a strategic choice made by China to "force" the United States.

 

 The United States is not sure of winning the trade war. It is hard to say whether it is even half sure, but it still has to make a bet.  This is undoubtedly the worst situation for the choice of national strategy.  It seems that there is a choice, but there is only a difference between bad and worse.  If the China problem is not resolved, the United States will not be able to fill its stomach even if it finds more wallets, and it will even get hungry.  The failure of the California high-speed rail project proves that the cost of social operations in the United States is extremely high. Financial and legal obstacles have increased the operating costs of the entire society. The risk of a trade war with China is extremely high, but the US federal government has no choice.