McDonald’s entered the Chinese and Indian markets in 1990 and 1996 respectively. Both are 1.4 billion people markets, but Mcdonald’s has 10x the number of restaurants in mainland China today, compared to India.

The Germans sell more cars in China than in all of Europe combined, and still have 20 percent of the Chinese market, just like the Japanese. That’s 5 million vehicles a year, each. These juggernauts don’t do anywhere near the same business in India. Same 1.4 billion market, but Ford exited the Indian market recently.

India is more youthful, the median age being 28.7 vs. 38.4 for China. Yet the Indian workforce lags the China by 300+m, or two entire American workforces, the world’s third largest. India exports labor instead. It provides the world’s largest migrant labor pool that repatriate >3 percent of Indian GDP annually.

This is the 40-year evolution of the Rupee (Orange) vs. the Yuan (Blue), measured against the USD. Post-financial crisis, the buying power diverged, despite India preceding China’s WTO accession. The Rupee has undergone unending devaluation for more than 7 decades, with no end in sight. India has a perennial capital account problem, despite growing into a 3 trillion dollar economy.

India has failed to attract the world because the foreigner finds it difficult to make money in India. Indian growth has been largely driven by currency devaluation, just like Vietnam and others enjoying a free ride courtesy of the first world’s “currency manipulation” accusations against the yuan, which is patently absurd.

India will find it way more difficult competing with China on an equal footing. When the narrative of the “Indian threat” emerges due in part to the proliferation of Indian faces among the elites of Western public life, India will face far stiffer tests. And just like covid, holes will be exploited. Discrimination knows no bounds.

For now, the prospect of India emerging as a “do china in” comeuppance is dim. What emerges from the cauldron of Chinese business is world class, such as tik tok, alibaba, huawei and CSCEC. We can’t say the same of Indian business.

I will sit up and pay attention when the Rupee reverses 7 decades (that’s almost one human lifetime) of devaluation. Or business leaders recommending India as the “next China” and “streets lined with gold”, rather than the nodding of reluctant devotees to political rhetoric.

Otherwise, India will be mired in the middle income trap as China steps into high income.

“Cheap” is no longer the calling card it once was, because the Chinese bled it dry with speed, quality and execution. For example, masks weren’t sourced from India over the covid pandemic, and India was unable to deliver vaccines through 2021, despite technology transfer from the west.

Good luck.

I'd say keep the feet planted, and think domestic, like cleaning up the holy river ganges, before shooting for the moon and aiming at China.