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政經新聞及評論
中國經濟與美國相比有多強
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2020年6月26日

美國眾議院議Jimmy Gomez近日在Quora.com發表了《中國經濟與美國相比有多強(見附文)一文。

Quora.com是美國左翼思想的平臺,言論親中

Jimmy Gomez住在中國,他主要提出幾點:

1.           ppp (purchasing power parity) 計算,確有認為中國GDP已超越美國的説法。 

2.           中國有完整的産業結構是很好的論據;也是美國的弱點。因為中國有很強的風險意識。例如農業,中國人口多,政府大幅度提供財政補貼,包括農業科技支援,農業收購價補助,以保高自給率。不准農地買賣,保耕地面積,保農民有後盾保障。城市無工開就回鄉,保生計。中國的第三産業偏小,但是現在已超過一半,而且充分利用網絡銷售,有很大的進步。第二産業更成為世界工廠

               當然,中國科技水準仍較落後。未能有完整的生産鏈,因此在貿易戰中仍然受制中美貿易戰中中國很克制是可以理解的。中國的繼續發展靠世界各國合作,因此中國強調多邊主義,倡議一帶一路 

3.           至於統計數據方面,在過去外國學者不信中國發展那麼強。到了2005年才醒覺過來。但是偏差多少就難以估計。中國很多農村人口仍過著自給自足的生活,沒有經過市場,也沒有算入GDP

 

當然,我們得認識到中國的各方面很脆弱,因為地理歷史文化因素,災害常常發生,安全性不足,因此未能算是一個發達國家 

我近日讀全國人大的資料,又加深了很多認識。對於中國,不敢輕言專家。中國的領導人很了不起!

 

附文:

How strong is the Chinese economy as compared to the USA?

Jimmy Gomez

Lives in China (1985–present)

China's economy is much stronger than the U.S. economy. I can even say that the U.S. economy is not China's rival at all. Please don't feel ill in a hurry.

According to the PPP used by the intelligence agencies in power of the United States to measure the national strength, China's total economic output surpassed that of the United States as early as the end of 2014. Yes, the GDP of the United States is still much larger than that of China in books. But please note:

1.       The economic structure of the United States is totally unreasonable, the financial industry is too strong, and the degree of economic virtualization is too high. However, China's economic structure is the most reasonable and promising among the major countries in the world. China's economy has not only a strong and advanced manufacturing industry (secondary industry), but also a booming service industry (tertiary industry), as well as a large number of primary industries. China is the only country in the world that has all the UN Industrial classifications. Not only that, China also has a unique ownership structure - public ownership as the main body + private ownership as the auxiliary, with both plans and markets, which makes China's economy have a strong ability to resist risks; while in the United States, if the financial collapse, the breakfast of 300 million people tomorrow will become a problem.

2.       The U.S. GDP is too wet. America's GDP takes everything including street snacks into account. I can say with confidence that China's GDP has been greatly reduced artificially. In China, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises report false economic data to the country. They hide a lot of economic activities in order to pay less taxes. A large number of economic activities are not included in the GDP, such as small enterprises and self-employed households with a scale of less than one million (but the number of these enterprises is in hundreds of millions), they are all tax-free, so their business activities are not included in GDP! There are also 500 million farmers in China whose activities in rural areas, such as building houses, are not included in GDP! ; rents in Chinese cities are not included in GDP! Yes, China's state-owned enterprises may exaggerate their income, but if we take those neglected into account, how much larger will China's real GDP be? I can't imagine it.

3.       There are too many "harmful GDP" in American GDP. Not all GDP means prosperity. For example, prisons in the United States may generate much more GDP than education; for example, the legal industry, I can't say that lawyers' contribution to the United States is very small, because it's politically incorrect, because lawyers control the whole United States in a sense, but who would agree that lawyers really create wealth commensurate with their salaries?

The truth of the world is really far away from us.

 
 
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