2016年3月怡居花絮


德意志銀行午宴暨座談會分享 ()

老闆王文彥先生早前獲德意志銀行邀請為一個午宴暨座談會擔任主講嘉賓,談談對近期樓市轉淡、市場轉勢在即的各種看法及對來年後市的預測。下文為德意志銀行為座談會所撰寫的總結文章節錄之()

Key takeaways from luncheon with Mr. Denny Wong

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Tony Tsang (Research Analyst)  Jason Ching, CFA (Research Analyst)

 

A rising number of negative factors affecting the HK property market:

1) The high housing price to income ratio in HK: according to Mr. Wong, quoting data from Demographia, the multiple of home prices to income in HK was about 11.9x in 2011, the highest in the world at that time already. In 2015, this multiple in HK has risen further, to 17x, and is now way higher than the second (10.6x for Vancouver) and third (9.8x for Sydney).

2) According to Demographia, a housing price to income ratio of over 5.1x already reflects difficult housing affordability.

3) The BSD and SSD introduced by the government have been effective in reducing the number of mainland buyers in the residential market, thereby lowering demand. The government has been trying to suppress demand in the property market, leading to a change in the demand-supply balance (such that the issue of demand being higher than supply is resolved). In addition, the home price expectations of the general public have also started to change recently. Mr. Wong believes that the government tightening measures are starting to work now.

4) The low rental yields and high P/Es of HK properties: rental yields are now too low for residential property in HK. For small-medium units, gross rental yields are now 3-3.3% for HK Island and Kowloon, and 3.4-3.8% for New Territories. For luxury apartments, gross rental yields are now 1.5-2.5%, while for super-luxury apartments, gross rental yields are now less than 1%. These yields also imply P/Es of 26-33x for small-medium-sized apartments, 40-67x for luxury apartments, and about 100x for super-luxury housing. According to Mr. Wong, given the lack of further rental or capital value appreciation for HK property now, these P/Es are way too high for normal investors. Mr. Wong believes that 5-7% gross rental yields and 15-20x P/Es for small-medium-sized properties are more reasonable.

5) In previous property market downturns, property prices in HK have fallen by 40-65%.

6) In the past 60 years, a property upturn in HK has never lasted for more than 13 years, and the current upturn (which started in Sep 2009) has already lasted for over 12 years.

7) The latest stock market crash has also led the general public to realize the big disconnect between the economy and the property market.

8) Mr. Wong sees a high correlation between the HSI and HK property prices. HSI movements can explain 80% of property price movements in HK.

9) Strong USD: the USD has risen against most major currencies like the AUD, CAD and EUR. So, the HKD has also risen. The strong USD has led to mainland homebuyers shifting to buy property in countries other than HK. The strong USD and HKD also affect exports, retail sales and services in HKD and in return affect the HK economy and housing affordability.

10) Homebuyers who bought property that will be completed in the coming two years may need to offload their units soon. Those people who boughtunfinished properties in the past two years and have not yet obtained a mortgage (because the settlement period of purchase has not come yet) could have difficulty in getting a mortgage if property prices continue to fall; hence they will likely face problems settling the transactions. These buyers could present a new risk to the market, as they could rush to sell their properties now, even at a loss. This would lead to more supply in the secondary market and more meaningful price declines.

11) Retail rents have fallen 30-40% for tier-1 shops and 10-20% for tier-2 shops in Hong Kong. Vacancies are rising due to the contraction in mainland tourists due to IVS contraction, anti-corruption measures and the strong HKD against other major currencies like the JPY, EUR and AUD.

To be continued



 

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