2015年1月怡居花絮


德意志銀行午宴暨座談會分享 ()

 

老闆王文彥先生早前獲德意志銀行邀請出席一個午宴暨座談會擔任主講嘉賓,談談對近期樓市的看法和對後市的預測,以及佔領中環事件對樓市所造成的中期、長期影響。下文為德意志銀行為座談會所撰寫的總結文章節錄之()

 

Key takeaways from Easy Property luncheon on Hong Kong residential

 

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Tony Tsang (Research Analyst)  Jason Ching, CFA (Research Analyst)

 

Residential prices are set to see a marked decline ahead

We hosted an investor luncheon with Easy Propertys Managing Director, Mr Denny Wong, who is also the co-founder of Centaline, one of the leading real estate agency chains in Hong Kong. Mr Wong believes that the pillars used to support the strong residential market, including tight supply and low interest rates, have faded out. Together with the governments tightening measures, residential prices are set to fall. However, a trigger for the turning point of the cycle is yet to emerge; consequently, prices have been holding up well. While prices for smaller units even continued to rise, this does not represent the overall market. On the back of the various government measures, the increase in new supply and the interest rate hike cycle drawing closer, Mr Wong believes that the residential market in Hong Kong is set to enter a downward cycle. Based on previous cycles, Mr Wong expects to see residential prices falling by 30-40% in the upcoming down cycle.

 

Strategic goals for the government to maintain the current measures

Mr. Wong believes there are a few strategic reasons for the government to implement the current tightening measures, namely the Special Stamp Duty (SSD), Buyers Stamp Duty (BSD) and Double Stamp Duty (DSD): 1) depress demand from non-local residents by BSD, so that local buyers have the priority to buy when supply remains tight; 2) control the property bubble from growing further as a means of reducing the adverse impact on the economy when the bubble ultimately bursts; 3) buy time, as it will take a while to increase new supply; 4) as non-local buyers and company buyers make up an aggregate 23% of demand, suppressing such demand is an effective source for stopping prices from surging further; 5) the SSD covers a period of three years, and coincidentally matches with the record-low interest rate period indicated by the Federal Reserve in the US; 6) various government officials to verbally discourage buyers from buying property at current price levels; 7) change buyers expectations on future pricing.

 

Aggressive price cuts by developers imply they are bearish on the outlook

SHKP initiated the turning point in pricing strategies upon re-launching its The Cullinan in Oct-13 at an effective price cut of 40%, by factoring in rebates and other incentives. Following that, The Austin was launched at an effective 30% below secondary projects nearby. Subsequently, developers are mostly adopting rebates and incentives as a mainstream marketing strategy on later launches. Most importantly, pricing in the primary market is now at a discount to that in the secondary market, and buying demand is flowing to primary from secondary. Mr Wong believes this is a strong signal that developers (as they have better access to market information) are holding a bearish view on the outlook of the residential market ahead.

 

High development cost has nothing to do with property prices

Some market participants are pointing to the fact that, as development costs are increasingly expensive (HK$4,000/sf for mass residential and HK$8,500/sf for luxury residential), there is little scope for property prices to fall. However, Mr Wong believes that this belief is against the economic theory, as prices are determined by supply and demand, not costs. Indeed, there have been numerous examples in past cycles that developers register losses when they ultimately launch the project for sale.

- To be continued -

 

聖誕午餐聯歡會

 

為迎接普天同慶的聖誕節,當然少不了公司上下一起聚首一堂盡興一番。聖誕節前夕,怡居一眾同事共聚華山分行,來一個簡單而隆重的聖誕午餐聯歡會。聯歡會簡樸而華麗,雖不是滿漢全席,但依然滿載著佳餚美饌,打頭陣有熱辣辣的紅燒乳豬,還有燻蹄、牛展、秘製雞翼,日式則有壽司刺身拼盤……各式其式。聯歡會隨著切燒豬儀式拉開序幕,同事們一邊享受美食,一邊談天說地,樂也融融。

 

 

 


 

其它怡居花絮
2018年09月怡居花絮 (10月1日)
2018年08月怡居花絮 (8月1日)
2018年07月怡居花絮 (7月1日)
2018年06月怡居花絮 (6月1日)
2018年05月怡居花絮 (5月1日)
2018年04月怡居花絮 (4月1日)
2018年03月怡居花絮 (3月1日)
2018年02月怡居花絮 (2月1日)
2018年01月怡居花絮 (1月1日)
2017年12月怡居花絮 (12月1日)
2017年11月怡居花絮 (11月23日)
2017年10月怡居花絮 (10月27日)
2017年9月怡居花絮 (10月3日)
2017年8月怡居花絮 (9月5日)
2017年7月怡居花絮 (7月1日)
2017年6月怡居花絮 (6月1日)
2017年5月怡居花絮 (5月1日)
2017年4月怡居花絮 (4月1日)
2017年3月怡居花絮 (3月1日)
2017年2月怡居花絮 (2月1日)
2017年1月怡居花絮 (1月1日)
2016年12月怡居花絮 (12月1日)
2016年11月怡居花絮 (11月1日)
2016年10月怡居花絮 (10月1日)
2016年9月怡居花絮 (9月1日)
2016年8月怡居花絮 (8月1日)
2016年7月怡居花絮 (7月1日)
2016年6月怡居花絮 (6月1日)
2016年5月怡居花絮 (5月1日)
2016年4月怡居花絮 (4月1日)
2016年3月怡居花絮 (3月1日)
2016年2月怡居花絮 (2月1日)
2016年1月怡居花絮 (1月1日)
2015年12月怡居花絮 (12月1日)
2015年11月怡居花絮 (11月1日)
2015年10月怡居花絮 (10月1日)
2015年9月怡居花絮 (9月1日)
2015年8月怡居花絮 (8月1日)
2015年7月怡居花絮 (7月1日)
2015年6月怡居花絮 (6月1日)
2015年5月怡居花絮 (5月1日)
2015年4月怡居花絮 (4月1日)
2015年3月怡居花絮 (3月1日)
2015年2月怡居花絮 (2月1日)
2015年1月怡居花絮 (1月1日)
2014年12月怡居花絮 (12月1日)
2014年11月怡居花絮 (11月1日)
2014年10月怡居花絮 (10月1日)
2014年9月怡居花絮 (9月1日)
2014年8月怡居花絮 (8月1日)

[ 首頁 | 前 10 頁 | 1 2 | 後 10 頁 | 尾頁 ]

 

 

Copyright © Easy Property Co., Limited. All Rights Reserved.